Spain electricity price: Q4 forecast reaches €127.25/MWh

Spain’s wholesale electricity price is forecast to reach €127.25 per megawatt hour (MWh) in the fourth quarter of 2026. Futures market figures on 1 September put the estimate 16.4% above the previous forecast. The rise comes as gas costs climb and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain.

The wholesale electricity market, known in Spain as the pool, averaged €118.25/MWh in August. That was 72.8% higher than in August 2025 and its highest monthly level since February 2023. Adding provisional system costs of €17.53/MWh took the provisional final power price to €135.78/MWh.

Gas pressure builds ahead of winter

European benchmark gas, the TTF, rose 15.8% in August to €61.46/MWh, its highest monthly level since January 2023. On Spain’s Mibgas market, gas averaged €61.87/MWh — up 12.7% on July and 89.6% on August 2025.

Group ASE said European gas reserves stood at about 65%, 13 percentage points below their level a year earlier. Slower filling of storage sites increases the need for liquefied natural gas imports before winter, while limits on LNG transport through the Strait of Hormuz add to the risk.

Cheap solar hours, costly evenings

High photovoltaic output pushed the average power price down to €26.37/MWh between 10.00 and 18.00 in August. Outside those hours, when gas again played a decisive role, it rose to €164.19/MWh.

Successive heatwaves lifted electricity demand by 9.78% against August 2025. Wind generation fell 9.6% and nuclear output dropped 7%, prompting combined-cycle gas plants to raise production by 29.6%.

Spain still recorded a lower electricity-market price than France, Germany and Italy. France averaged €122.80/MWh in August, Germany €126.94/MWh and Italy €182.40/MWh.

Topics: Economy

Source: Europa Press / Mallorca.com