Mallorca climate threat: Balearic GDP per head could fall 17%

Mallorca, in Spain’s Balearic Islands, faces shrinking beaches and hotter days: climate change could cut GDP per head across the islands by up to 17% over the next 25 years, a study warns. The AXA Foundation presented the findings in Palma, Mallorca, on Wednesday, 28 October 2026.

Flood-risk expert Claudia Ylla said Mallorca’s economic exposure centres on tourism. Its appeal depends on beaches, available water and comfortable temperatures. If those conditions worsen, fewer people may choose to visit, she said.

Hotter days and narrower beaches

In Palma, maximum temperatures could rise by up to four degrees by 2050, the study says. The number of days when it feels hotter than 33 degrees could climb from 15 to 62 a year. The projected fall in GDP per head for the city is 16.3%.

The average sea level could rise by around 24 centimetres by 2050. Beach width could shrink by 96% at Cala Estància and 80% at Ses Troneres. Ylla said some beaches could almost disappear.

Water and flood risks

Palma draws about 75% of the water it uses from underground reserves. Nine of the reserves supplying the city are already overused, Ylla said, and five more could be by 2027. Rainfall could fall by 20% by 2050, making it harder to replenish them.

The study also finds that about 60% of Palma’s population — around 309,000 people — is exposed to flooding. It identifies the Ramblas, Es Molinar and some industrial areas as particularly vulnerable. Floods could disrupt transport and water supplies.

Ylla proposed flood barriers and restoring native coastal vegetation among the ways to reduce the risks. Palma’s mayor, Jaime Martínez, pointed to investment in the city’s water system, more green spaces and plans for a municipal desalination plant.

Topics: Environment · Economy · Palma

Source: Europa Press / Mallorca.com