Mallorca study: public opinion can suddenly flip

A Mallorca research team has built a mathematical model showing how public opinion can suddenly move from an even split to near-unanimous agreement. The work comes from the Institute for Interdisciplinary Physics and Complex Systems (Ifisc) at the University of the Balearic Islands (UIB) in Palma. The university presented the study on Thursday.

The model puts people between two possible views and two competing impulses: following the majority or deliberately taking a different line. It uses stochastic thermodynamics — mathematical tools normally associated with information and probability in changing systems — to track how those choices shape wider currents of opinion.

Following the crowd or standing apart

Conformity means adopting the view held by most people nearby. Anti-conformity means changing position when many others think alike, in order to stand out.

The balance between those forces can lead to sharply different outcomes, the UIB said. Society may remain polarised, with the two views split more or less evenly. Or it may move towards consensus, where almost everyone holds the same opinion.

A sudden shift at a critical point

The researchers say changes in the model follow a rule similar to the second law of thermodynamics, which limits how collective debates can develop on their own. They also use fluctuation theorems to define the volatility and predictability of opinion trends over time.

When critical parameters change, public opinion can switch abruptly, according to the model. The UIB compares the shift to water changing state after crossing a temperature threshold: a polarised, uncoordinated debate can rapidly become organised consensus.

Study leader Gonzalo Manzano said stochastic thermodynamics is not confined to energy systems. If real-world opinion changes can be observed closely enough to separate conformity from anti-conformity, the authors say the formulas could be tested against everyday data.

Source: Europa Press / Mallorca.com