Winter electricity price could hit €189 per MWh
Wholesale electricity prices could reach €189 per megawatt hour this winter if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, temperatures fall and Europe enters the season with weak gas stocks. Seville energy consultancy Tempos Energía puts the possible price range at €172 to €189 per megawatt hour. Its director, Antonio Aceituno, says that combination could make the end of the year the costliest since 2010, apart from 2021.
In that scenario, gas could rise to €105 per megawatt hour. The consultancy says Europe’s gas stores may be no more than 75% full at the start of winter, below last year’s 83% and below Brussels’ reduced 80% target.
Even mild weather may not bring relief
A mild, windy winter could lower gas to between €73 and €78 per megawatt hour, Tempos Energía says. Electricity would still stand between €137 and €145 per megawatt hour, with September’s high prices continuing through to the year end rather than falling sharply.
If the Strait of Hormuz reopens but cold weather persists, the consultancy expects gas at €68 to €75 and electricity at €129 to €140 per megawatt hour. It says ships would not arrive in time to meet demand in the final quarter.
Even the most favourable of its four scenarios leaves electricity between €101 and €112 per megawatt hour. Gas would be between €51 and €58.
September’s wholesale price doubled in three months
The September wholesale market price, known as the pool, averaged €140.94 per megawatt hour. That was its highest level since October 2022 and the third most expensive September in 16 years.
Tempos Energía says the price rose 102.5% from €69.59 in June, through €104.75 in July and €118.25 in August. Prices also varied sharply across the day: electricity averaged €36.20 per megawatt hour from 13.00 to 18.00, then climbed to €217.77 between 19.00 and 22.00, when gas dominated generation.
Source: Europa Press / Mallorca.com